Objective: win by three goals
Our side will take on the reigning Copa Libertadores champions this Monday, at 21:00 CEST, in our third match of the FIFA Club World Cup.
Mission: win by three at least three goals to continue competing at the FIFA Club World Cup. Standing in the way of us achieving this objective on Monday at 21:00 CEST in the third and final group game, is Botafogo.
The Rose Bowl Stadium will once again be the venue of our match against the reigning champions of the Brasileirão and Copa Libertadores, who are currently the leaders of Group B. Renato Paiva’s side have won both of their matches so far, against Seattle Sounders (1-2) and PSG (0-1), but these results do not currently guarantee their spot in the last-16.
What does Atlético de Madrid need to advance to the last-16 of the FIFA Club World Cup?
The team will need to win by at least three goals on Monday and will need PSG to beat Seattle. This will mean that there three teams will be tied on six points at the top, with the two teams with the best goal difference from the head to head matches advancing to the next round. The goal difference with one match remaining currently stands at PSG +3 (can no longer change), +1 for Botafogo and -4 for Atleti.
However, there is another option that could allow us to advance to the elimination phase without needing to win by three goals, provided we earn more points against Botafogo than PSG does against Seattle, who still have a mathematical chance of qualifying.
Focusing on the first possibility, it’s true that the Brazilian side have shown strong defensive solidity both in the FIFA Club World Cup and throughout the past calendar year, having only lost by a three goals on two occasions. However, the most recent of those came in a do or die match quite similar to the one on Monday: a 3–0 defeat to Pachuca in the FIFA Intercontinental Cup quarter-finals last December. That elimination marked the beginning of an inconsistent run that even led to a coaching change, with Renato Paiva taking over at the end of February. Botafogo currently sit eighth in the Brasileirão with a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses.
In terms of ourselves, we have won 12 matches by a difference of at least three goals last season, including in four of the final six league games, against Rayo Vallecano, Real Sociedad, Betis and Girona. The key men in these matches proved to be Alexander Sørloth and Julián Alvarez. The Norwegian scored eight goals in this time while the Argentina scored three goals and provided two assists.
